Decision-makers are required to make subjective forecasts about future in the absence of perfect information. For example, organizations operating across several countries need to closely watch currency exchange rates at future points in time, and need experts to make these predictions using a combination of objective data and subjective judgments. I investigate how individuals’ judgments are influenced by different decision-making frames and by their personality traits.
Decision Frames: Does framing the future time differently influence the accuracy of subjective forecasts? Can overconfidence be reduced by recommending systematic processes for thinking about future time?
Can judgments of probabilities of future events (such as the outcomes of a political process or the risks of natural catastrophes) be influenced by how we think about future time?
Personality Traits: Are people with maximizing tendencies (i.e., those who seek the best) able to make better predictions than people who behave more like satisficers (i.e., those who seek the good enough)? Does Depressive Realism – the idea that depressed individuals are more realistic and hence less overconfident – also hold while making predictions about exogenous uncertainty?
- Jain, K., Mukherjee, K., Bearden, J. N., & Gaba, A. (2013). Unpacking the Future: A Nudge Towards Wider Interval Forecasts. Management Science. DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.1120.1696
- Jain, K., Bearden, J. N., & Filipowicz, A. (2013). Do Maximizers Predict Better than Satisficers? Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 26 (1), 41-50.
- Jain, K., Bearden, J. N., & Filipowicz, A. (2013). Depression and Forecast Accuracy: Evidence from the 2010 FIFA World Cup. International Journal of Forecasting, 29, 69-79.
- Vericourt, F., Jain, K., Bearden, J. N., & Filipowicz, A. (2013). Sex, Risk, and Newsvendor. Journal of Operations Management, 31(1-2), 86-92.
- Filipowicz, A., Bearden, J. N., & Jain, K. Anger and Escalation of Commitment. Working Paper.